tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-248476012024-03-13T13:47:32.970-04:00Drifting Through The GriftStrange Tales of Georgia Politics and Mediagriftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.comBlogger2764125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-69541769437187272472014-11-05T10:03:00.002-05:002014-11-05T11:41:15.507-05:00Election 2014 - Final ThoughtsMy being undecided, "independent", non-partisan is something of a glib inside joke in certain political circles, but as I stood in the voting kiosk yesterday, I paused, truly not sure what I was going to do.<br />
<br />
Unlike ridiculous Alison Grimes, I will not keep what I did a secret. I split my ticket. I voted for several Republicans and a few Democrats. I will leave the kimono closed just enough to let you guess which ones.<br />
<br />
My temporary electoral existential crisis was caused by the revulsion of being in the same room, celebrating victory with <a href="http://www.redstate.com/users/erick/">this guy</a>, but also the realization the Democrats had never really made the case for my vote.<br />
<br />
With last night's lashing, my advice to Democrats is this: just once, try running on your record instead of away from it. The Republicans sure aren't afraid to. No matter how loony their record is, no matter how out of touch with reality it is, they understand the only way to convince people to trust them is to say, "here it is and that's the way it's gonna be!" Last night shows, it doesn't matter how freak show it gets, they still win.<br />
<br />
You may still not get my vote ( or even many others ), but you certainly can't lose any more votes. At this point, I don't think that's conceivable. Even for Democrats.<br />
<br />
Thus endeth the lessons. For now.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-69126169126725886202014-11-03T11:44:00.003-05:002014-11-03T11:44:36.717-05:00Final Thoughts For The Last 24 HoursNot so random thoughts for your last day of election madness.<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>My standard response to everyone who has asked me over the past three weeks, "It's gonna be close"</li>
<li>Republicans are surging. As national pundit Taegen Goddard put it over the weekend, "if you are unskewing, you're losing". Democrats are mining for nuggets of optimism in a series of very bad polls.</li>
<li>However, the wise remember that the polls in the Republican primary were off. In some cases by a lot. There is a fair amount of evidence significant problems exist in the fundamentals of polling Georgia.</li>
<li>Bottom line - Democrats are not "unskewing" ala the Republicans in 2012. They aren't delusional. Maybe just a little naively optimistic.</li>
<li>You will hear a lot about turnout. Why this matters is a couple of ticks of percentage on the African American turnout or on Michelle Nunn winning women will be the difference in another typical Democratic loss or a runoff</li>
<li>Which leads to get out the vote efforts. For Democrats to win they will have to get voters who don't normally vote in a midterm to the polls in unprecedented numbers</li>
<li>Expecting this to happen may be more hopeful optimism, but the Democrats are more organized than any election year since the 90s.</li>
<li>Reminder. The big counties always report late. Expect Carter and Nunn to be significantly behind in the early evening and pull closer as the night goes on</li>
<li>If Perdue and Deal are only ahead by about 2 points with Fulton and DeKalb still out, there may not be enough face powder to hide the flop sweat</li>
</ul>
Final thought. Once the Republicans win, and they will, either tomorrow or in January, you will hear the phrase "the people have spoken" quite a bit. And the people will have spoken but it will be in a whisper, not a roar.<br />
<br />
Nate Silver has an excellent round up of why this election is a <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-2014-a-republican-wave/">mixed bag</a>. It is not the "wave" the so-called "liberal" media is now trying to paint.<br />
<br />
The House is a non-issue. 89% of the seats are considered a lock. As expected, Republicans will only pad their majority.<br />
<br />
The Republicans will take the Senate. That has been the story all along and that is the way it will finish. The only reason the narrative veered is because Democrats made it much closer than expected in places they shouldn't have. Like Arkansas. Like Louisiana. Like Georgia.<br />
<br />
If you wish to seek the dark place where Republicans worry, it is in the corner where the media barely ventures - the Governors. In a year where the sitting Democratic President has approvals hovering around 40%, some Republican Governors are fighting for their lives.<br />
<br />
If this were a Republican wave year, Nathan Deal in Georgia and Rick Scott would barely have to open their mouths to win re-election. In a normal year, a state that voted +7 for Romney and has elected Republican super-majorities in both of its state houses should easily return a Republican Governor to a second term. Instead, Georgia may end up in a runoff.<br />
<br />
As Patterson Hood once <a href="http://www.drivebytruckers.com/records.html">wrote</a>, "there's a lot of bad wood underneath the veneer". <br />
<br />
Some are wise enough to heed the warnings. They are the ones flinching from Ted Cruz acting like he already controls the Senate. They are the ones who quietly talk about 2014 being "a near death experience".<br />
<br />
After tomorrow night, the question will be will those quiet voices have any chance to steer the Republican ship away from the obvious rocks or will the loud and self-righteous continue to drown out all who do not bathe in the waters of purity.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-29744565756455664922014-10-30T14:33:00.000-04:002014-10-30T14:56:46.716-04:00Republicans Will Lose By Winning<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPdLG87XVfYHIgvdTYLp5zp0CPQ_LINk8obJOSwjletnvlLH_tBebWfotsyrkthHHlPrmk4dxD9UdVC_Sy47lxG8mhI7hTAGnDuWcq_J-Azk7pAwwLVVlbujzapmsn0pKHvdzdVA/s1600/pathwoods.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPdLG87XVfYHIgvdTYLp5zp0CPQ_LINk8obJOSwjletnvlLH_tBebWfotsyrkthHHlPrmk4dxD9UdVC_Sy47lxG8mhI7hTAGnDuWcq_J-Azk7pAwwLVVlbujzapmsn0pKHvdzdVA/s1600/pathwoods.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Republicans are going to win and it is the worst thing that
can happen to them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Although polls show Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter
continue to keep David Perdue and Nathan Deal within their grasp, as happens
with most elections in Georgia, after a brief high water mark for Democrats,
the trends are shifting towards the Republicans. The fundamentals are still too
strong. Every statewide office is held by a Republican. The state voted for
Romney by a considerable margin (although considerably less than other
Republican strongholds). And in the case of Deal, the force of incumbency is
the strongest variable in the physics of politics.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Although the Republican’s losing an incumbent Governor would
sting, it will be the inevitable victory of David Perdue which will ultimately
cause the Republican Party both in this state and nationally to continue to
coast on the belief that their ideas, and not structural factors, are the
reason they just keep on winning.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I get called a liberal quite a bit and there’s a simple
reason. I live in Georgia.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I believe most gun laws are feel-good salves which have
little effect in the real world. If I were ever elected to an office, despite that
time seven years ago when I called them <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2007/04/thugs.html">thugs</a> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">, I would probably get an A on the NRA's scorecard. But because I acknowledge the
word “regulate” appears in the Second Amendment and because I admit that a gun
law being stupid doesn’t make it unconstitutional, I get called a liberal. You
see in Georgia and states where words like “true” and “principled” are used not
just as descriptors but as badges against heresy, to acknowledge any nuanced
interpretation of our “fundamental rights” is to acknowledge you are nothing
more than a dirty gun grabber.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I think government should be as small as possible and we
should tax ourselves as little as possible. But because I add the word “possible”
to those declarations, I’m called a liberal. A “true” (there it is again)
conservative would simply say, “government should be small” and “we should tax
ourselves little”. If you even hint that taxes are not painfully high or that
after 30 years of the experiment, supply side economics may not work, you are a
liberal. That all data shows effective tax rates are at historic lows and that
in Kansas, the governor is empirically proving that tax cuts do not pay for
themselves, matters not one whit. Unless you bow at the altar of taxes should
always be reduced, you are not only a liberal. You’re a socialist.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To see the effects of this twisted view of reality, look no
further than Ted Cruz. No doubt turning the ground for a Presidential run, he
recently said Republicans would lose again if they nominate another candidate
in the mold of John McCain or Mitt Romney. And in the funhouse in which Cruz
lives, these candidates did not lose because they are reasonable men forced to
wear the clown outfit of “true conservatism” in front of an electorate who
easily saw the fakeness of it all. No, in Cruz’s distorted world, they lost
because they didn’t run hard enough to the right. Only true believers find
redemption and salvation and the glory of winning.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">If you live in deep red Texas or in Georgia, the reasoning
is seductive. It works for us here, why would it not work everywhere? But much
like believing I’m a liberal, it ignores all to the contrary. The rest of the
country is not Texas or Georgia and the evidence shows it.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Republicans have managed a majority in a Presidential
election once since 1988. In Senatorial elections, statewide races and
therefore immune to the weird demographics of gerrymandering, instead of a wave
in 2014, the Republican’s likely outcome is a slight swell that manages to get
past rocks named Nunn in Georgia and Orman in Kansas. And the Governors.
Republican Governors were once the pride of the party and the Republican
Governor’s Association one of its most powerful brokers. Now, Republican
Governors, even those in friendly places like Georgia, are fighting for their
lives.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Of course Republicans dominate the House of Representatives
for reasons that go well beyond party purity. No finer example of this is the
inevitable election of Jody Hice in Georgia’s 10<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> District. A
district that includes a portion of liberal Athens is going to send someone to
Capitol Hill who believes the First Amendment does not apply to certain
religions, women should submit to men and everything started going to hell in a
hand basket when we took Bibles out of school.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And here is where we get to the nut of the thing. You do not
hear those “liberty” criers criticizing Hice’s malleable view of the 1<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">st</span></sup>
Amendment. Certainly not in the manner they attack other Republicans
who only say we should discuss the meaning of the 2<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">nd</span></sup> Amendment. And
it is because Republicans in deep red states, like Georgia, have only seen
success in continuing to narrow the path. They don’t see Jody Hice and his ilk
as outliers. They see them as the mainstream.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And when Deal and Perdue are elected and the Reverend Jody
goes to Washington, Republicans will recline again in the comfort that people
like me are liberals, fundamentals like demographics will never change and as
long as you are “true” and “principled”, the righteous will always emerge from
battle covered in glory. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Two years from now when traditional Republicans tire of
being called liberals, when the demographics needle ticks a few more points out
of their favor, when they will defend twice as many seats as Democrats in the
Senate and face another electoral thrashing in a Presidential race, maybe, just
maybe, the few Republicans left will stand up and say, you know what boys and
girls, this ain’t really working.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Until that moment comes, the path will continue to narrow
and more will fall by the wayside.</span>griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-45160668431748920702014-03-12T11:06:00.004-04:002014-03-12T11:36:03.706-04:00Politics, Reality and Florida<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQNQKT4tEkDAcyItLltmUsleXcvDz7Vo7ifAiKkJXAE5LRFEipXT-ZDmR7wGBkQBi6Addv0NySxxVPW1t2NsH6TDqr3W04dRCUZTSgZ-xn5v0BE0HEOnoglHc12zWqqlvD7FLrDg/s1600/crist.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQNQKT4tEkDAcyItLltmUsleXcvDz7Vo7ifAiKkJXAE5LRFEipXT-ZDmR7wGBkQBi6Addv0NySxxVPW1t2NsH6TDqr3W04dRCUZTSgZ-xn5v0BE0HEOnoglHc12zWqqlvD7FLrDg/s1600/crist.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<em>"Time is flat circle" ~Rust Cohle</em><br />
<br />
Politics is three legged stool of the political, the governing and the reality. Those who try to balance on only the first, inevitably crash. This morning, Florida (it's always Florida) presents two sets of evidence to test this particular theory.<br />
<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">The Florida 13th</span></strong><br />
<br />
Last night Republican David Jolly beat Democrat Alex Sink in a special election in the 13th Congressional District. Republicans are crowing it is a bell weather for 2014 and yet another death knell for Obamacare. Democrats are downplaying the loss as another typical result of a low turnout election in a Republican-leaning district.<br />
<br />
We are so desperate to see signs and portents. Since Stonehenge was thrown up, finding meaning in the vastness is a closed circuit buried down in our limbic battery.<br />
<br />
In all this chicken bone reading, few except <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/03/12/florida_13_three_things_everyone_s_getting_wrong_about_the_republican_win.html">Dave Weigel</a> note the reality that Jolly didn't exactly run against Obamacare but more against Medicare cuts (less popular in Florida than an early freeze) and Alex Sink is and has always been a terrible campaigner.<br />
<br />
Not that the Democrats can blithely wave off another Sink sinking. Like 2010, the math is against them in 2014 and they cannot ignore any soft underbelly.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Politics</strong> - Republicans will use the 13th as grease for the momentum rail. Democrats will try to downplay it while privately fretting about a possible wave election. Expect to see more attention to Georgia's Michelle Nunn as she becomes a firewall for Democratic Senate Control. And that's trouble, because expecting a relative newcomer to turn a deep red state into a blue victory reeks of desperation.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Governing</strong> - The 13th doesn't change any equations. The Republicans were going to keep the house anyway.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Reality</strong> - It's 8 months until the election. Anything can happen. And in the end, places like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/polls-gop-retaking-senate-election-probability-2014-2">Alaska</a> will matter more than Pinellas County.<br />
<br />
As another Alex Sink chapter closes, one of her previous rivals is attempting to start a new one.<br />
<br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;">Charlie Crist is back</span></strong><br />
<br />
The former Florida governor was a frequent <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/search/label/Charlie%20Crist">writing topic of mine from 2008 to 2010.</a> His story was a speedball for a political junkie.<br />
<br />
Charlie went from rock star politician with a 70% approval rating and national aspirations to the political wilderness in under three years. Part of my fascination with him was his independent streak but as he unwisely stepped out of the safe cocoon of the Governor's mansion and straight into the buzz saw of the Tea Party machine, I also saw him as a sign of things to come. He became one of the first of a long line of establishment Republican casualties who ignored the fervor of the purity caucus and were tossed onto the pile of kindling<br />
<br />
But unlike <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mitch-mcconnell-crush-conservative-insurgents-2014-3">Mitch McConnell in Kentucky</a>, Charlie is no longer fighting the raging Republican inquisition from the inside. Charlie switched sides.<br />
<br />
Crist is running for his old job - as a Democrat. Some see this as opportunism. After he was trounced by Marco Rubio in the 2010 Republican Primary, Charlie switched to independent and then lost again. A couple of years later, he celebrated President Obama's re-election and completed the journey to the Donkey side of the aisle.<br />
<br />
His response to criticism of this change echoes another former southern governor. Charlie says he didn't leave the Republican Party, it left him.<br />
<br />
The Atlantic's Molly Ball has a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/03/charlie-crist-loves-to-love-you-america/284350/">detailed piece on Crist's nascent campaign</a> and much like Charlie himself, it is not the expected. Of course, he has big money backers but he's eschewing a traditional campaign structure and seems to go where ever the flow of politics takes him.<br />
<br />
I learned a few years ago that even the <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2007/10/josh-lanier.html">nicest guys don't win</a> if their entire plan is to bounce around from place to place shaking hands, kissing babies and expecting people to act like they have good sense. Charlie Crist's recent electoral experience showed him the price of counting on voters acting rationally, which makes his weird new venture seem more like a soothing of the spotlight jones than a serious effort to retake the helm of the fourth largest state.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Politics</strong> - Current Governor Rick Scott is deeply unpopular. Especially with teachers. And one political maxim every governor lives by is don't piss off the teachers. However, much like Georgia to the north, the Republican machine (ironically partially built by Crist) has a stranglehold on politics. Scott has the money and the infrastructure. His only real weakness is his own stupidity.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Governing</strong> - Florida is in better shape than it was four years ago and how much credit goes to Governor Scott largely depends on your affiliation. However, despite being one of the Tea Party torch bearers, he accepted Medicaid expansion. That shores up what could have been a dangerous political flank.<br />
<br />
<strong>The Reality</strong> - Unless your name is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawton_Chiles">Lawton Chiles</a> and you walk from Pensacola to Key West, maverick campaigns don't work in Florida. It's just too big with too many major television markets. Scott's war chest is overwhelming and unless Charlie stops kissing babies and starts setting up a real campaign, he's doomed.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-73919447111922112682014-01-30T09:53:00.002-05:002014-01-30T15:22:54.884-05:00What We Got Right And What We Got Wrong<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4jcTilFvui6x0g4aCvye5TY2sFefYAvyQWICo36GI4czs8CKhCeuyxyTO6eAbWDyIgcALAhbJBlX12LXGAH88_CFfluUW8d_4VdegyDKmkOLP6IWS_Emz_VwESPNgTCj5CjNFeg/s1600/snowdayright2014png.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4jcTilFvui6x0g4aCvye5TY2sFefYAvyQWICo36GI4czs8CKhCeuyxyTO6eAbWDyIgcALAhbJBlX12LXGAH88_CFfluUW8d_4VdegyDKmkOLP6IWS_Emz_VwESPNgTCj5CjNFeg/s1600/snowdayright2014png.png" height="320" width="240" /></a></div>
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<br />
Don't like the weather in Atlanta? Wait five minutes. In a week where there were few laughs, as we hit 65 this weekend and roll around in shorts, we would do well to remember that old joke.<br />
<br />
But humor aside, we all learned some harsh lessons this past week. And by everyone, I mean everyone. Everyone made mistakes - from employers who gambled they could get a full days work out of their employees to the Governor, who for reasons he has yet to explain, did not fully mobilize following that early morning warning from the National Weather Service to the national media who do not understand "Atlanta" is more than a dot on the map.<br />
<br />
Hopefully, once the sensationalism dies down, we will have an honest conversation about everything that went wrong.<br />
<br />
Let me be clear about a few things first.<br />
<ul>
<li>The National Weather Service absolutely got the forecast right. I have nothing but admiration for this sometimes beleaguered agency. I would trust them with my life.</li>
<li>Once the warning was made at 3:55am Tuesday morning, state and local leaders made a series of calamitous decisions. One more important than all of the others</li>
<li>The national media continues to conflate how much warning we received and what "Atlanta" is and this is the reason we continue to wallow in the blame swamp.</li>
</ul>
Let's start with the forecast issue.<br />
<br />
Nathan Deal made an unfortunate word choice in his first storm press conference, calling the storm "unexpected". Of course he was wrong. The National Weather Service and other weather outlets had warned Georgia of an impending event since the previous Saturday. But he wasn't completely wrong. Prior to 3:00pm on Monday, no weather service indicated north of I-20 would be hit with any more than a dusting and any icing problems would happen Tuesday night (and this did happen just as predicted but by then it was too late).<br />
<br />
That the nexus of the disaster hit north of I-20 is a critical fact which plays into any analysis and has been mostly ignored.<br />
<br />
Reviewing the weather discussion from the NWS, all indications prior to Monday evening show the focus of the storm being south of I-20. It was Monday evening before Fulton County was upgraded from a Winter Watch to an Advisory*. The last thing most people saw before they went to bed was 1-2 inches of accumulation in Fulton County but the worst of the storm still far to the south.<br />
<br />
It should be noted, the one service that made explicit warnings on Monday afternoon was <a href="http://themoderatevoice.com/191262/the-southern-deep-freeze-predicted-or-unexpected-and-does-it-matter/?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter">Accuweather</a>. Vice President Mike Smith is rightly furious that no one listened. But the government doesn't listen to a private company, they rely on the National Weather Service.<br />
<br />
In addition to the standard warnings, government leaders received two briefings from the NWS and they are <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/01/29/are-meteorologists-to-blame-for-snow-disasters-in-atlanta-and-birmingham/?wprss=rss_AllWPStoriesandBlogs&Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost&clsrd">telling</a>. The Monday 3:00pm briefing included the statement "significant travel problems across much of central and some of north Georgia including parts of the Atlanta Metro area". The next briefing was at 9:00am the following morning and it was far more explicit, but as we now know, the die was already cast.<br />
<br />
At 3:55am, everything changed. The NWS issued a Winter Warning and its details were rather explicit. Instead of snow starting midday to midafternoon, it would start at 9:00 am and the conditions would deteriorate as we went into the afternoon.<br />
<br />
This is a crucial point for two reasons: National media (and some local partisans) keep saying we had days of warnings this would happen (not true for the northern suburbs) but starting at 3:55am, local officials had definitive warning and how they acted after this was critical.<br />
<br />
Once a warning was in hand, several critical decisions were not made, and few of them involve the man taking the brunt of the blame - Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed.<br />
<br />
Circumstantial evidence indicates the critical decision was made by Fulton County Schools Superintendent Robert Avossa. Despite the explicit warning earlier that morning and the more dire warning by Accuweather 12 hours earlier, he chose to send kids to school.<br />
<br />
This may have been the domino that started the chain. Instead of a significant portion of the population staying home to care for young people, they went to work. And when the crisis was rapidly approaching its peak, those children were desperately trying to get home. And parents were desperately trying to get to them. Instead of no trips because everyone was safe in their warm houses, parents had to attempt what amounted to an extended drive with two destinations instead of just one - or none.<br />
<br />
At the state level, no one seems sure what happened at GEMA (Georgia's Emergency Management Agency). Based on local reports, its website was not updated with warnings until later in the day. And WSB-TVs Lori Geary reported the command center was quiet on Tuesday morning. Lack of warning may have given false confidence to the business community. Would you risk an entire day's revenue if the state agency in charge of emergencies did not appear concerned?<br />
<br />
Later that evening GEMA head Charley English admitted the center was not fully activated until 4:00pm. When asked why, he gave the mind-boggling response that conditions were not serious at that point. It is apparent that, if not ignored, the NWS warning earlier that morning was not given the attention it needed.<br />
<br />
As the crisis built, where were the most visible leaders of the region and the state? Governor Deal and Kasim Reed were at an award luncheon at noon - around the same time, over a million people decided to escape the city.<br />
<br />
This shows an appalling lack of awareness and both may pay a price politically. Mayor Reed was quick to defend that he had trucks working at 9:00am that morning and he is no doubt right. But he's also a smart enough politician to understand you don't graciously accept meaningless awards at a rubber chicken lunch when the city is teetering on chaos.<br />
<br />
But of all the things that went wrong, here's where Mayor Reed is right. The city streets were relatively clean. Unlike 2011 when the inner city was paralyzed for four days, Atlanta itself had streets working throughout the crisis and in under 24 hours was still a functioning city.<br />
<br />
Ironically, that may be the reason things went so horribly wrong. People were able to get out of the city grid and onto the freeways and here is where hope was lost.<br />
<br />
As the news became national, video proliferated of "Atlanta". I-75 into Cobb and the northern arc of the perimeter were shown on a continuous loop. The problem is neither is actually in the city of Atlanta.<br />
<br />
To those of the outside world, "Atlanta" is a dot on a map. To those of us who live here it can mean as far south as Stockbridge and as far north as Jasper. As Atlanta Magazine's Rebecca Burn's <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/atlanta-snow-storm-102839.html">noted</a>, neither is actually the City of Atlanta.<br />
<br />
And because the national media never provided this important context, the weather forecasters can rightly say they predicted the situation while never noting they didn't predict it for the northern suburbs until very late in the game. And the national media can continue to beat up on Kasim Reed when he had exactly zero to do with state highways traversing north Fulton and Cobb.<br />
<br />
It continues today. We are all Atlanta. Until the crisis passes and for the remainder of the year, we back into our respective corners and get very little accomplished in solving our traffic problems.<br />
<br />
And here is the ultimate lesson from that horrid 24 hours - we didn't have a weather problem. We had a traffic problem. As I indicated in the Peach Pundit Daily ( you can <a href="http://app.signalhq.com/form/list/peachpunditdaily">subscribe here</a> ), we have no effective means of rapidly evacuating Atlanta. Emotional terror of not being able to reach your stranded child is inconceivable - actual terror with the possibility of substantial loss of life is exponentially worse.<br />
<br />
Once the blame storm has passed, we have some hard questions to ask and they should center around the short term, why do we not have an effective evacuation plan, and long term, will we ever seriously examine why our transportation system is our greatest flaw.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">*I'm a bit of a weather geek and even I made the mistake of saying the NWS "downgraded" us to an Advisory Monday night. Advisory is an upgrade. But ask yourself this, if a weather geek can get this confused, how many other people went to bed that night thinking it would be a non-event? Another problem is the way the NWS communicates and this should be reviewed. More emphasis should be placed on impact instead of vague nomenclature and the state should have an Emergency Response Meterologist for times like this.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-65529068143638928742013-12-05T08:33:00.002-05:002013-12-05T08:33:37.832-05:00The Legacy of 1980<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNS08pvAPqK-0x_moz7zlvFucjZ4lwHHhddLKThBoH4Ldg-Ux2QIfIgaDd5egs2mIRGWxWBVi59ef9020a_fDFY-B-bqgfgorDHqG2aTU-03rjzsfGKb6wAqmh4Q5xDq3pi-v6Lg/s1600/CarterJason.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNS08pvAPqK-0x_moz7zlvFucjZ4lwHHhddLKThBoH4Ldg-Ux2QIfIgaDd5egs2mIRGWxWBVi59ef9020a_fDFY-B-bqgfgorDHqG2aTU-03rjzsfGKb6wAqmh4Q5xDq3pi-v6Lg/s320/CarterJason.jpg" width="191" /></a></div>
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<br />
From my column in this week's <a href="http://clatl.com/atlanta/how-the-1980-presidential-election-still-influences-georgia-politics-today/Content?oid=9856152">Creative Loafing</a>,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Jason Carter knows the odds he faces as a Democrat candidate in a Republican stronghold. While the gubernatorial challenger has a fighting chance due to his family's legacy, it'll also be his greatest challenge in 2014. To win, Jason Carter will need to resurrect the hope of his grandfather's 1976 campaign <em>and</em> fight the demons from his crushing defeat four years later.</blockquote>
I was 12 years old in 1980. Too young to truly understand what occurred, but old enough to have the "moment" imprint on my memory. Many others around my age have similar experiences and in many of my Republican friends it has become a shibboleth - a shining light on the road to Damascus.<br />
<br />
<br />
Honoring the past is worthwhile pursuit. In politics, becoming chained to it is dangerous. Jason Carter's <a href="http://www.flagpole.com/news/city-dope/2013/12/04/democrat-jason-carter-might-actually-become-governor">recent appearance in Athens</a> may indicate Republicans will have to rely on more than historical bromides to beat back the upstart.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-47807161221695258042013-11-06T08:45:00.001-05:002013-11-06T08:45:10.587-05:00After The Scene Dies<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIGVrRCsdXVeO_aAGFSAuOnuXL0wPHpBZemzFpfGGG3nOcgv2r5Jx7jMLgKx1-V2-7CB3uxaooVt74XkPuU_rj6pGJZOQPDqHkhDrW4uezoKS-oPQmjGvPqyD1oGKpHXxY7NpzvA/s1600/Tom_Waits-Closing_Time.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIGVrRCsdXVeO_aAGFSAuOnuXL0wPHpBZemzFpfGGG3nOcgv2r5Jx7jMLgKx1-V2-7CB3uxaooVt74XkPuU_rj6pGJZOQPDqHkhDrW4uezoKS-oPQmjGvPqyD1oGKpHXxY7NpzvA/s1600/Tom_Waits-Closing_Time.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Everyone wants to tell the story of Virginia. But there are two opinions which I believe sum up what happened last night in the Old Dominion. And both are stark warnings for Republicans.<br />
<br />
First, well-respected University of Virginia professor <a href="https://twitter.com/LarrySabato">Larry Sabato</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
McAuliffe team beat the jinx with strong campaign + big financial edge + Cuccinelli's social issues. Oh, VA is bluish purple, too. </blockquote>
I would add the lament of right wing pundits that if the shutdown didn't happen, we would have had five weeks of campaigning on Obamacare and its junk website. It might have made a difference, but elections are like ifs and ands and buts but with less chance of candy or nuts.<br />
<br />The key takeaway from Sabato's statement; big financial edge. Despite everyone, and I mean everyone, knowing McAuliffe is a slimier than the bottom of a pond experiencing an algae bloom, the money swung his way. Principles are fine but winning is better and money wins election.<br />
<br />
Big picture analyses point to the Donkey in the room; Obamacare. Its relative absence as an issue in the early stages is credited for McAuliffe's victory. Its late appearance following the shutdown fallout is credited for Cucinelli's resurgence.<br />
<br />Both are right but Josh Barro points to a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-governor-results-obamacare-referendum-2013-11">subtle nuance that should trouble every Republican</a> currently littering social media with schadenfreude over website failures and cancellation notices.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Even in an election that the Republican candidate was deeming to be a "referendum on Obamacare," in a state where Obamacare is not popular, against a Democratic nominee whose key career accomplishment is unusual success at influence peddling, the Republican nominee lost.</blockquote>
Yes Barro ignores other factors but his point is salient; if scorched earth campaigning against Obamacare won't work in a state where the majority are somewhat against the program, where will it?<br />
<br />
It is time for hard realities and hard decisions for Republicans everywhere (even in deep red states like Georgia).<br />
<br />
Reality: you aren't going to repeal Obamacare. And it won't be because you never, ever win when it is put to an electoral test. It is because even you know the price of kicking 25 year olds and people with pre-existing conditions off their insurance is too high.<br />
<br />
So it is decision time. Do you persist in another three years of self soothing primal screams and sniping at something you will never defeat? Or do you finally wake to a world where people elect pond scum because they can govern and decide that winning then the governing that follows winning are again appealing options.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-36756393089661846782013-10-03T08:11:00.001-04:002013-10-03T08:12:10.467-04:00Governor Deal Will Win Re-Election<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ-HBClkQAOfKh2_ckq2hBjl-otLVaeETV04awPca79xkKnvrBPIXkUbvXxihau-Zk3aLiiAIPtz-QdUlKSR94va7pL7UKUIMUy4Ex9ThjXB5geTqh-psMQeGdEgUDJCmlfd4Kug/s1600/Nathan+Deal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ-HBClkQAOfKh2_ckq2hBjl-otLVaeETV04awPca79xkKnvrBPIXkUbvXxihau-Zk3aLiiAIPtz-QdUlKSR94va7pL7UKUIMUy4Ex9ThjXB5geTqh-psMQeGdEgUDJCmlfd4Kug/s1600/Nathan+Deal.jpg" /></a></div>
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<br />
From my column in <a href="http://clatl.com/atlanta/teflon-deal/Content?oid=9411031">Creative Loafing</a>,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
It is difficult to ignore the dichotomy of a man constantly dogged by claims of old-fashioned, back-room maneuvering completely reorganizing the political structure of the state's second largest county — one which is predominantly Democrat and African-American. And he was praised for his doing what was necessary.</blockquote>
You can read the entire piece <a href="http://clatl.com/atlanta/teflon-deal/Content?oid=9411031">here</a>.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-81941112768371047982013-10-02T09:31:00.002-04:002013-10-02T09:35:59.054-04:00Try Walking To McDonalds Naked<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpb2Y3GdXIqWkvs__d3UjlmAn6ppAuK6bQHKqVVBEpysCAIZB_G_BFWN8UxTqcJTjxvpoMh2tEgl61loQ0X6l5g-DdYRVn4NZ6VjARIxCQNkpFns6TemSHLBUcqUcuQ8ZbjgfMdw/s1600/adameve.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpb2Y3GdXIqWkvs__d3UjlmAn6ppAuK6bQHKqVVBEpysCAIZB_G_BFWN8UxTqcJTjxvpoMh2tEgl61loQ0X6l5g-DdYRVn4NZ6VjARIxCQNkpFns6TemSHLBUcqUcuQ8ZbjgfMdw/s320/adameve.jpg" width="249" /></a></div>
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<br />
Of all the silliness associated with the shutdown of the Federal government, the one that is driving me to drink is people confusing non-essential with unnecessary.<br />
<br />
Some folks follow this line of reasoning: if all these federal workers are non-essential, it shows we can do without them and that is good enough reason to conclude the government is too big.<br />
<br />
Let me use a simple analogy to explain the difference between essential and non-essential.<br />
<br />
Food is essential. Without it you will die.<br />
<br />
Clothing is non-essential. If you are naked as the day you were born, everything in your innards will function just fine.<br />
<br />
But try walking to McDonald's without your non-essential clothes to get your essential Big Mac and see what happens.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-53569103938283963172013-09-05T11:15:00.000-04:002013-09-05T11:15:41.006-04:00Quote Of The Day - Southern Fried Edition<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5SzBVb0sE6mgB2H8-jW1hn3zybpmV9VHUGEK31LH9fBRgpDXjEIcd1mzIgAcgnsgv_Q7CDwUY20_zSl1XKDEJDHIvTP0kXl0-NqQyyqCXfJVU_wHw2LMT8x0vVUif7ZwNMk9S0A/s1600/Jim-Stacy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5SzBVb0sE6mgB2H8-jW1hn3zybpmV9VHUGEK31LH9fBRgpDXjEIcd1mzIgAcgnsgv_Q7CDwUY20_zSl1XKDEJDHIvTP0kXl0-NqQyyqCXfJVU_wHw2LMT8x0vVUif7ZwNMk9S0A/s320/Jim-Stacy.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
From Jim Stacy, host of WPBA's "Get Delicious" and Destination America's "Deep Fried Masters".<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Nothing says America like a corn dog. Back in the ’50s you’d take your kid to the carnival, fill him up with sugar, put him on all these rides and make him sick. Then for dinner you hand him this piece of meat on a stick. “Here’s your dinner and a weapon.” That’s the America I know.</blockquote>
Just a sample of his interview in <a href="http://www.esquire.com/blogs/food-for-men/jim-stacy-interview-0913">Esquire</a>. Esquire!<br />
<br />
I've been aware of Jim since the days of Grand Moff Tarkin and was fortunate enough to once meet him outside the Star Bar. I was drunk and he was not, but he was as pleasant and gentlemanly to me as he probably is to his close relations. He's about as fine an example of a real southerner that I know.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-2032265474681831002013-08-29T10:10:00.000-04:002013-08-29T10:10:19.203-04:00Detailed Demographics of Where You Live<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXkVZFzio0g3j2hwvPiPw6G6sgHnl2VXmlGitIs8Et2ppxbP5xy1fGGy8vSiszcw2qj4mmSgr9MpEsqkX8kI3t0Z_M2jXmCOkJiFt3W6KHZimpqjqdf-iUuAUH0gOOLkKO3MMVFA/s1600/moultrie_demographics.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXkVZFzio0g3j2hwvPiPw6G6sgHnl2VXmlGitIs8Et2ppxbP5xy1fGGy8vSiszcw2qj4mmSgr9MpEsqkX8kI3t0Z_M2jXmCOkJiFt3W6KHZimpqjqdf-iUuAUH0gOOLkKO3MMVFA/s320/moultrie_demographics.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
<a href="http://demographics.coopercenter.org/DotMap/index.html">This is one of the most incredible sites you will ever see</a>. Dustin Cable at the <a href="http://www.coopercenter.org/demographics/Racial-Dot-Map">University of Virginia</a> created a map based on data from the 2010 U.S. Census where each dot represents a single person color coded by racial makeup.<br />
<br />
As you look at the whole, you see a mix of colors, but as you zoom in, the lines become stark. Above is a snapshot I took of my home town of Moultrie, Ga. It doesn't really tell me anything new - "Northwest Moultrie" has always been the center of the African American community and in the past two decades, "The Circle" to the west of downtown as become a center of the Hispanic community - but it certainly illuminates the contrast more vividly than anything I've seen.<br />
<br />
No real commentary or judgment here. Just try to not get lost for hours.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-17811655587295908052013-08-08T11:39:00.000-04:002013-08-08T12:38:57.713-04:00More Poll Stuff<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSjKz7ZAKyGbLd9PghG0mw3nGDGH9jv4uA4gNWBO44Q8Q5WPLoygkkhxP0XZ7PlZ9xv48CoJJMPXpgZ5BTJaiotbA990m-bA4CjC9D3Bdgv9B3YMirgYjLZOQcFo_qqvG4V84SQ/s1600/hollywoodgrift.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSjKz7ZAKyGbLd9PghG0mw3nGDGH9jv4uA4gNWBO44Q8Q5WPLoygkkhxP0XZ7PlZ9xv48CoJJMPXpgZ5BTJaiotbA990m-bA4CjC9D3Bdgv9B3YMirgYjLZOQcFo_qqvG4V84SQ/s320/hollywoodgrift.jpg" width="306" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
My opinions of polls vary from indifference to hostility. Whenever someone starts screaming about a poll where a thin majority supports their position, I like to say, "well most people would like to ride a pony to the supper table and eat nothing but ice cream, what's your point?"<br />
<br />
So that's why I take Public Policy Polling's <a href="http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/aug/08/georgias-culturalpolitical-temp-43-would-support-w/">latest round of surveys with a grain of salt</a>. However, based on conversations and reading, I wish I could say I'm surprised by these results but I'm not. Hopefully, this is just a case of confirmation bias or correlation perceived as causation, because if these numbers are accurate, it is almost too depressing to comprehend<br />
<br />
- 53% of Georgians prefer Creationism to Evolution. Before you start arrogantly cackling Democrats, a plurality of your fine folks believe this also.<br />
<br />
-A plurality of Georgians think the much ballyhooed <a href="http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/freshman-starts-informal-white-student-union-at-ge/nY887/">White Student Union</a> at Georgia State is a fine and dandy idea. Probably because the lazy press hasn't reported it has ties to a <a href="http://biscuette.com/2013/08/01/patrick-sharp-is-racial-bigot-who-associates-with-neo-nazi-organizations/">white supremacy organization</a>.<br />
<br />
-But perhaps the saddest part. We don't like Honey Boo Boo very much. Is it because she and Mama June and Sugar Bear are a mirror? Or just another caricature designed to eternalize us all as gap-toothed rednecks? I don't know. I like watching her family mostly because I've known people like that and even though they are complete bug crazy, they are good people. My people I suppose.<br />
<br />
PPP is testing the temperature of this state. It's a sign that the upcoming Senate race may be the real deal. It will still be herculean for Democrats to turn it competitive but we still have a year of Republicans seeing just how crazy it takes to dance the primary jig and there are indications real money might swing this way.<br />
<br />
Meantime, the rest of the country will see these polls, flip on a rerun of Dukes of Hazzard and thank God they don't have to deal with Enos chasing down Daisy Duke once again.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-69705570376943717392013-08-07T08:22:00.003-04:002013-08-07T08:22:27.173-04:00Quote For The Day<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsszisNWbtwGzVUlCUwBAbBdywnxquigS2q5dmMrXmFrPfw9cwFY53uvf_dscAcwh-I6xdEbYgivhyL3nXBFkGZiZruJ48_Mg2i8NQ69d9cYNTurMnNkP-zaaCmhF4fWXpNk5w5w/s1600/michelle_nunn.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsszisNWbtwGzVUlCUwBAbBdywnxquigS2q5dmMrXmFrPfw9cwFY53uvf_dscAcwh-I6xdEbYgivhyL3nXBFkGZiZruJ48_Mg2i8NQ69d9cYNTurMnNkP-zaaCmhF4fWXpNk5w5w/s320/michelle_nunn.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
From the snarky Dave Weigel on Michelle Nunn's <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/08/06/august_6_2013_the_day_democrats_were_optimistic_about_winning_a_senate_race.html">political acumen</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
So far she's good at dodging questions. That's important!</blockquote>
<br />
<br />
The national press/politiratti have turned their flame rimmed eyes towards Georgia.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-56401133413987522222013-08-06T09:42:00.002-04:002013-08-06T10:09:33.819-04:00About That Poll<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6BfzZtdSQeY-WMovr_9Z-uORNudTVSpJhZYM6squAGgkJXXTtm3TGBP2wjRXEL5h-QA5r8cwCq3f5zH2Rhyphenhyphenq1bSSL-7OrX582QSBaM-PXFmlIkO0V98rcdiOsTCpZsBpPlhyphenhyphenAXw/s1600/polls.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6BfzZtdSQeY-WMovr_9Z-uORNudTVSpJhZYM6squAGgkJXXTtm3TGBP2wjRXEL5h-QA5r8cwCq3f5zH2Rhyphenhyphenq1bSSL-7OrX582QSBaM-PXFmlIkO0V98rcdiOsTCpZsBpPlhyphenhyphenAXw/s320/polls.png" width="242" /></a></div>
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<br />
All the insiders are atwitter over the first poll of the Senate season. In the <a href="http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/aug/06/new-poll-michelle-nunn-matches-gop-field-us-senate/">Public Policy Polling survey</a> just published, Democrat Michelle Nunn ties most of the field and wallops firebrand Paul Broun. Three first impressions.<br />
<br />
<u>Why the Democrats can be happy</u><br />
<br />
-Despite the entrenched narrative that PPP "leans left" (it is a given they poll demographics more favorable towards Democrats) according to Nate Silver, in the 2012 Presidential election, they were actually <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/">biased towards <em>Romney</em></a>! More importantly, they were far more accurate than some of their top competitors.<br />
<br />
<u>Why the Republicans can be happy</u><br />
<br />
-Nunn still polled no higher than 42%. As <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2013/07/47.html">we've shown</a>, the mid-40s is the Democrats high water mark in non Presidential races. There's a good chance this poll is closer to the ceiling than the floor<br />
<br />
<u>Why the weird can be happy</u><br />
<br />
-Relative unknown David Perdue polled 40%. The only reasonable explanation is people think he's former Governor Sonny Perdue.<br />
<br />
And that last point brings us to the bottom line. Polls, particularly early ones, are useless at the strategic level and marginally useful at the tactical level. At this point, they are really about driving the narrative in whatever particular direction you favor. And with the first one on the board, expect a lot of narrative spew in the next 24 hours.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-7756034009782875152013-07-31T09:07:00.001-04:002013-07-31T10:14:26.923-04:00TSPLOST One Year Later<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw1zR_KoqY4PZEXzK_nBQu4aSuSpJHFeOmrseK211a0cDtC_2A6Izmc-OyYiFvRP-xRFcgns5EQxP7htPGMR_elEwZ0nUCP6bqUY8C9tXotcB90KgcnmP49Ofgx7V_0vUAzd41zw/s1600/wagonsutck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw1zR_KoqY4PZEXzK_nBQu4aSuSpJHFeOmrseK211a0cDtC_2A6Izmc-OyYiFvRP-xRFcgns5EQxP7htPGMR_elEwZ0nUCP6bqUY8C9tXotcB90KgcnmP49Ofgx7V_0vUAzd41zw/s320/wagonsutck.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
It is an ignominious anniversary. One year ago 9 of the 12 regions voted against the TSPLOST (a local one cent sales tax pegged for transportation). Of course, one of those regions was Atlanta.<br />
<br />
It should be remembered that even supporters of TSPLOST considered it a crap sandwich. It was so full of poison pills and political chicanery that even those desperate for transportation relief pulled levers reluctantly.<br />
<br />
Of course this didn't prevent the Atlanta Tea Party (conveniently headquartered in Dacula) from <a href="http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/tea-party-notches-a-big-win-in-t-splost-loss/nQXfj/">claiming credit</a>.<br />
<br />
Rightly so. To a degree.<br />
<br />
They used a broad coalition of traditional rivals such as The Sierra Club and the NAACP to lash TSPLOST from stem to stern. Also, anxious to show they were not just the voice of "NO", they promised to use their new power and take leadership in the new tax free transportation world that followed.<br />
<br />
<div>
Atlanta Tea Party's Debbie Dooley promised the marriage of convenience with The Sierra Club would continue and together they would work a executing a "Plan B". Prior to the vote, they presented one version (see below). After the election, didn't hear much about it ever again. You would think a group that in Dooley's words "took on the governor, the lieutenant governor, the mayor, big business and slick
political consultants...emerged victorious" would be revel in strikiing off additional victories.</div>
<br />
Here's what they proprosed <a href="http://clatl.com/freshloaf/archives/2012/07/27/sierra-club-tea-party-agree-on-plan-b-if-t-splost-fails">four days before the vote</a>:<br />
<br />
<em>1) Discard the current three different taxes on motor fuel and enact a single motor fuel tax, based on the value of the commodity and allowed to rise and fall with price inflation, dedicated solely to funding transportation with a portion[a] of the motor fuel tax receipts available for “all transportation purposes,” including operating costs as well as capital and maintenance.</em><br />
<em></em><br />
<em>2) Allow any two or more local governments to create, and fully fund, transportation projects to meet the needs of their citizens through referenda on local motor fuel or sales taxes, and other revenue sources.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>a) Allow referenda to levy local fractional sales taxes and motor fuel taxes of less than one percent for local transportation funding purposes.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>b) Leave decisions over specific allowable allocations of local transportation taxes and fees in control of the local governments and their agencies that administer them, free from State interference.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>c) Allow combinations of local governments to form fiscal partnerships with GA DOT for sharing capital and/or operating costs of local transportation projects to meet the needs of their citizens.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>3) Before elected officials are given more money they need to show they can be trusted with what they have. As a first step toward transparency and accountability, DOT Board members should be elected at annual public meetings of Congressional District Legislative Caucuses in each Congressional District for open public election (no secret ballots) to one-year terms of service and review of transportation activities in the District.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>4) Before MARTA is expanded, it should be brought up to date on maintenance and be restored to a reasonable level of service.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>a) The Legislature should end its interference in MARTA budgets and resume an oversight role. Voters and elected officials where the MARTA tax is collected (Fulton, Dekalb and Atlanta) should decide how MARTA revenue should be spent.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>b) The hotel/motel tax the City of Atlanta collects yearly should in some part go to MARTA or transportation needs, not to be used to build a new stadium for the Falcons.</em><br />
<em> </em><br />
<em>c) Other options that should be considered include distance based user fares, charge for parking at MARTA lots, use part of the hotel/motel tax to help fund MARTA — even consider raising the tax to fund transportation needs.</em><br />
<br />
Other than bitching about the new stadium, do you remember hearing anything about any of that during the last legislative session? Yeah. Me neither.<br />
<br />
What has happened is true to his word, Governor Deal has executed his plan B - <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2012/08/good-morning-welcome-to-plan-b.html">I decide what gets built where</a>.<br />
<br />
Good for those living at either end of GA-400. For everyone else? Not so much.<br />
<br />
Same as it ever was.<br />
<br />griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-69466718444405993632013-07-31T08:25:00.002-04:002013-07-31T09:24:56.701-04:00Chart Of The Day<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYeBrU4Nve_AciSPic6OwWNNJThkrbWOz1zOlWYDnbqHQQWvWn_6BaqSEKWBSFnNSPGy9A6xqeTR3WLp2Jmsvf9FDUby4C63KAm7J1J7Y8k50j3xhO9RVGmCB1x6tY3AfT0caTUA/s1600/insurancepremiums.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYeBrU4Nve_AciSPic6OwWNNJThkrbWOz1zOlWYDnbqHQQWvWn_6BaqSEKWBSFnNSPGy9A6xqeTR3WLp2Jmsvf9FDUby4C63KAm7J1J7Y8k50j3xhO9RVGmCB1x6tY3AfT0caTUA/s320/insurancepremiums.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
You can disagree with Obamacare. You can think it is the wrong policy for the country. You can even believe, with some credence, that it will raise rates.<br />
<br />
But stop pretending that rates were not already increasing dramatically prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act.<br />
<br />
As you can see from the chart above (provided by <a href="http://www.factcheck.org/2011/10/factchecking-health-insurance-premiums/">Kaiser</a>), annual health insurance increases were far out pacing inflation. From 2000 to 2005, the average annual rate increase topped 8%.<br />
<br />
We will soon hear "repeal" for the <a href="http://www.peachpundit.com/2013/07/30/congressman-tom-graves-bill-to-defund-obamacare-garners-100th-cosponsor/">fortieth time in the U.S. House of Representatives</a>. However, we will not hear what comes after and everyone should be able to agree returning to the status quo is not tenable.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-65231617469752865582013-07-30T08:40:00.002-04:002013-07-30T08:41:44.429-04:00Another Reason We Should Love Atlanta<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZYD-xzAxb1vpmcDpXpLVMSghVD5OTBxharJBaGvP5texcGW08wAjEtyd3zM7HaCxnHuuaNg-MGoOz8Z2o5k1y_Zr6n8VsSek73C3bt7nmIDroz9JznCzYEq8gBufZ234dhK0-TQ/s1600/moneylender.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZYD-xzAxb1vpmcDpXpLVMSghVD5OTBxharJBaGvP5texcGW08wAjEtyd3zM7HaCxnHuuaNg-MGoOz8Z2o5k1y_Zr6n8VsSek73C3bt7nmIDroz9JznCzYEq8gBufZ234dhK0-TQ/s320/moneylender.png" width="234" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Ethics in government has been a hot topic in Georgia during the last two legislative sessions but a new study from Harvard may indicate we should be counting our blessings.<br />
<br />
Felipe Campante of Harvard and Quoc-Anh Doh of Singapore posit the <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/05/24/153596809/researchers-find-link-between-isolated-state-capitals-corruption">more isolated a state capital the greater possibility of corruption</a>. One of the most dramatic examples they use is New York, with upstate Albany, and Massachussets, with white hot center Boston.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
if we compare two Northeastern states with similar levels of GDP per capita, we see that Massachusetts, with its population quite concentrated around Boston, is measured as considerably less corrupt than New York and its isolated Albany</blockquote>
The researchers provide plenty of data to show their hypothesis is more causation than correlation and provides evidence of ancillary causes such as concentration of media coverage.<br />
<br />
Next January, when once again we debate the cost of steak dinners or even trips to France, just remember it could be worse. The Gold Dome could be in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Here_Comes_Honey_Boo_Boo">McIntyre</a>.<br />
<br />griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-5280093850987215932013-07-26T09:24:00.002-04:002013-07-26T09:24:23.040-04:00Majestic Neon<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2CvJwCV23I6pFX12OeBoyT4k5XAZJddBboLfC-AdX-7kJrHjoTCz8jFMnMPf5Uhdh9gaJoWGvO3x5ob8u0zUsRg429GMkoxxpIm1W4HTbYiAOQm9G1CALh9XM3DQKASDREebTVA/s1600/eagle_neon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2CvJwCV23I6pFX12OeBoyT4k5XAZJddBboLfC-AdX-7kJrHjoTCz8jFMnMPf5Uhdh9gaJoWGvO3x5ob8u0zUsRg429GMkoxxpIm1W4HTbYiAOQm9G1CALh9XM3DQKASDREebTVA/s320/eagle_neon.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
No Senate race today. No politics. Just a little fun for Friday.<br />
<br />
Flavorwire lists <a href="http://flavorwire.com/405806/35-of-americas-most-majestic-vintage-neon-signs/view-all">35 of America's most majestic neon signs</a>. Two are in Atlanta. Can you name them without looking? (Hint: sadly the Majestic's majestic sign is not one of them.)<br />
<br />
Have a great weekend everyone. Politics resumes next week.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-83471098864135371312013-07-25T09:08:00.003-04:002013-07-25T10:24:51.242-04:00What If....Republicans Start To Lose?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvydkpG0FykjS2QTVSfYRd0x2MjLCa41q2z5BI4tF0Zsh5_pXq4vnDbkW4ftvofgRnVwEM5KhBl9kSoKhKA7_0rZRlt-pqmVz6amKeLGSlKWU02ewPv5vFlgdSMJ1vjYk7_yaCnQ/s1600/gypsy_fortunetellers.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvydkpG0FykjS2QTVSfYRd0x2MjLCa41q2z5BI4tF0Zsh5_pXq4vnDbkW4ftvofgRnVwEM5KhBl9kSoKhKA7_0rZRlt-pqmVz6amKeLGSlKWU02ewPv5vFlgdSMJ1vjYk7_yaCnQ/s320/gypsy_fortunetellers.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
According to the Yoda of the Numbers, Nate Silver, punditry is not only useless but is comparable to a <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/13/nate-silver-punditry-fundamentally-useless_n_2294547.html">cardinal sin</a>. Well, either I could turn this blog into a never ending stream of kittens (and make more money than a porn mogul) or I could commit a little sin. I hate cats, so sin it is!<br />
<br />
Let's play what if.<br />
<br />
The what if is not what if Michelle Nunn wins in next year's Senate election. The slavering national press already has that <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/23/how-michelle-nunn-puts-pressure-on-georgia-republicans/">covered</a> and I've already said I don't believe it will <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2013/07/47.html">happen</a>. (To be Nate Silver-like, I'd put her chances at about 20%)<br />
<br />
Instead, what if after Michelle Nunn, the Georgia Republican Party rests on its laurels believing its shield of righteousness will protect it from all challenges?<br />
<br />
What if they start to lose elections?<br />
<br />
Sound far fetched? One only has to look at the resolutions of the last Georgia Republican convention - <a href="http://www.peachpundit.com/2013/06/22/gagop-stat-committee-takes-up/">a sop to a specific industry, opposition to an education proposal</a> - to infer that a decade of white washing Democrats has led the Republicans to a place where they are obsessed with the tactical while believing the strategic is a given.<br />
<br />
If we accept this as valid, where might another electoral victory lead them? Let's speculate.<br />
<br />
2014 - Republicans elect Phil Gingrey/Paul Broun in the primary. Gingrey/Broun beats Michelle Nunn, 52-47<br />
<br />
2016 - After two years of Sen. Gingrey/Broun and continued demographics changes, State Rep. Jason Carter uses a strategy focused on not only Metro Atlanta but the other four metro areas (plus Libertarian defections) to narrowly beat U.S. Representative Tom Price for U.S. Senate. Democrats win Gwinnett County for the first time in a generation.<br />
<br />
2018 - Using the groundwork laid by the new Senator Carter, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed not only wins Gwinnett but peels off Henry County to decisively beat U.S Rep.Austin Scott and becomes Georgia's first African American governor.<br />
<br />
And then the fight really begins. What insiders understand is despite the importance of these races, they are brushwars compared to the all out war that 2020 will be. In that year, whichever party holds the Presidency will be up for re-election, we'll have a census and this will ripple all the way down to the state house where the representatives who will draw the next voting districts will be elected.<br />
<br />
If the Democrats hold the governor's mansion and are within striking distance of taking back either side of the Capitol, it will be a bloodfest.<br />
<br />
Is that all a little out on a limb? Likely. However, once you leave the fever swamp of over-confidence where the ardent currently wallow, I guarantee there are a few furrowed Republican brows who have pondered these scenarios.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-58465876688586880352013-07-24T09:58:00.000-04:002013-07-24T10:03:27.793-04:00Deep In The Fever Swamps<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKzLQIXFvuPtg7vhRl2AAgrPH6ZLEmkUiOj3TMQgUcg-molrB3YCc7KqjLUfg6EFf_FNyr0gsy6N4BpFRx_PZKc-XSyMJSZ8j-Sdb2dubY4h3xwBQOxzffBo42OLN-fnlH4DSD_A/s1600/louisiana-swamp-soldier.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKzLQIXFvuPtg7vhRl2AAgrPH6ZLEmkUiOj3TMQgUcg-molrB3YCc7KqjLUfg6EFf_FNyr0gsy6N4BpFRx_PZKc-XSyMJSZ8j-Sdb2dubY4h3xwBQOxzffBo42OLN-fnlH4DSD_A/s320/louisiana-swamp-soldier.jpg" width="268" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Comment sections are vital to the the health of the social media landscape. If you don't agree, I have a stack of AJC back issues I'd like to sell you. They are the mulch that support and feed the surface landscape, however don't dig too deep. Otherwise, you'll just end up in the dark covered in garbage and dung.<br />
<br />
But occasionally it is fruitful to turn the earth and see what's percolating underneath. With these cautions in mind, let's see how the commenters of Georgia's two major partisan websites handled yesterday's announcement by Michelle Nunn that she is entering the race for U.S. Senate.<br />
<br />
The Riotgrrls at <a href="http://www.blogfordemocracy.org/">Blog For Democracy</a> were not too happy with the roll out. I'm hard pressed to remember when they were ever happy with a candidate rollout. They are Democrats after all.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We’ve been waiting months, and if it weren’t for the intros in the articles we wouldn’t know Ms Nunn was even running as a Democrat. No mention of hoping for support from Georgia Democrats, no appreciation for President Obama’s leadership. Only a nod to the two Bush’s.</blockquote>
While true, Nunn's initial releases were as soft as curdled milk (even Republican site <a href="http://zpolitics.com/is-she-a-democrat/">ZPolitics</a> noted the lack of reference to Democrats), what Catherine and others are not seeing here is that Michelle Nunn is already running a general election campaign. Twelve months ahead of schedule. Instead of another Hunger Games primary, they have a candidate who can slow roll right up to the general election and appeal to the broadest part of the electorate while the Republicans spend a year trying to out crazy each other.<br />
<br />
But as I said. Democrats. Only they can turn an advantage into a reason for full bore panic.<br />
<br />
Over at <a href="http://www.peachpundit.com/2013/07/23/georgia-republican-party-takes-shot-across-michelle-nunns-bow/">Peach Pundit</a>, everyone is wringing their hands over the Georgia Republican Party's <a href="http://gapundit.com/2013/07/23/gagop-responds-to-nunns-candidacy-for-us-senate/">initial response</a> to Nunn's candidacy. And not just the usual caged monkey poo flingers. From Bull Moose,<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Just my opinion, but I think the GOP is making some big mistakes in it’s
immediate attacks on Michelle Nunn. </blockquote>
Most of the comments are about the juvenile nature of the press release and it isn't the best thing I've ever read. But I thought it was funny and a welcome break for the normal mad-lib/fill in the blank press releases.<br />
<br />
But more importantly. It's July! 2013! Sixteen months from the election! The only people who read the thing are the people commenting on it. And unless their adderall gives out, in a day or so, they will move on to the next "outrage".<br />
<br />
For the first time in a while, the Republicans are going to have a bloodbath while the Democrats stand on the sideline and watch. A little focus on the truly important might be useful.<br />
<br />
Welcome to day 2 of the 2014 Georgia Senate campaign. Only 500 or so to go.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-90850807534120707732013-07-23T08:25:00.002-04:002013-07-23T09:27:27.628-04:0047<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVXOIbCcfWDlVlQYWgIIMx9FifeL8QJTDD2r-e23QJnRi66ccbwXvESThYLanQ6qCd0-qCURc7JhfO7vOugPylWn3syIZ5jp5NRypUgC5JES8fwDL1HGgH8XzQDBGqn63nUooKoA/s1600/michelle_nunn.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVXOIbCcfWDlVlQYWgIIMx9FifeL8QJTDD2r-e23QJnRi66ccbwXvESThYLanQ6qCd0-qCURc7JhfO7vOugPylWn3syIZ5jp5NRypUgC5JES8fwDL1HGgH8XzQDBGqn63nUooKoA/s320/michelle_nunn.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
47. That's the highwater mark for a Democratic candidate in a statewide race in Georgia in the past decade. It was achieved by Jim Martin in <a href="http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/swfed.htm">2008</a> against Saxby Chambliss*.<br />
<br />
Chambliss is now retiring and a new Democrat is seeking to replace him. Michelle Nunn is the daughter of legendary Georgia Senator Sam Nunn and she will certainly face whatever candidate emerges from the crowded Republican primary field.<br />
<br />
47 is daunting but it gets worse. In the last election where President Obama was not at the top of the ticket, the Democratic highwater mark was 43% by Roy Barnes in <a href="http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2010_1102/swfed.htm">2010</a>.<br />
<br />
You will hear many stories today that will use words like "battleground" and "changing demograpics", but they will ignore the cold hard math. The last time a non-incumbent Democrat posted over 45% in a statewide race where Barack Obama's name wasn't at the top of the ticket was Michael Coles well-funded campaign against Paul Coverdell in <a href="http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/1998_1103/federal.htm">1998</a>.<br />
<br />
1998.<br />
<br />
Anyone who ignores the unsexy numbers while charging towards the sexy narratives are dreaming of dog wagging tails in the political doldrums that suffocate the summer before a big election.<br />
<br />
<em><span style="font-size: x-small;">*Editor's note - Democratic candidate for PSC Jim Powell actually achieved 48% in 2008 but there was so much </span></em><a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/search?q=jim+powell"><em><span style="font-size: x-small;">craziness</span></em></a><em><span style="font-size: x-small;"> in that election, it shouldn't be considered comparable.</span></em>griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-7040861982920432382013-07-17T14:15:00.000-04:002013-07-17T14:15:05.962-04:00A Love Letter To South Georgia<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfE6KDI48L64uL8ziia-a9X2GrX8BYOuao0ysyRvMQOGBQrgMWrE7LYlUiKwMN07_7kxfGGOvytkQdIB9DjQEWQ_CuJuZzv6yJWvaSQr61B6lgMoG5SrCCGXXdrhNqFqATYzb7qg/s1600/moultrie_sunset.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfE6KDI48L64uL8ziia-a9X2GrX8BYOuao0ysyRvMQOGBQrgMWrE7LYlUiKwMN07_7kxfGGOvytkQdIB9DjQEWQ_CuJuZzv6yJWvaSQr61B6lgMoG5SrCCGXXdrhNqFqATYzb7qg/s320/moultrie_sunset.jpg" width="239" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
From my <a href="http://clatl.com/atlanta/love-letter-to-south-georgia/Content?oid=8729000">Last Word column</a> in this week's Creative Loafing.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
When I was a boy, the roads surrounding my home were still dirt and I would walk, barefoot, between my house and my grandmother's place. On an adventurous day, I might cut through the woods, avoiding the briars and the snakes they likely hid. Although the city limits were creeping closer, Moultrie felt very far away to my small eyes. Atlanta was as foreign and distant as the great cities of the North.</blockquote>
Read the rest <a href="http://clatl.com/atlanta/love-letter-to-south-georgia/Content?oid=8729000">here</a>.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-31448070808801219762013-06-20T12:21:00.001-04:002013-06-20T13:07:40.996-04:00Life In The BurbsAlthough I've moved further north, I struggle with saying I'm in the burbs. Even if I'm not ITP, I can see ITP from my house!<br />
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Now that I'm settled in, it's time to take a look around and see what's happening. A quick perusal of the landscape finds some old friends and some old lessons the <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2013/04/is-city-of-lakeside-ineviable.html">new city people</a> a little further to the south may want to heed.<br />
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<b>Sandy Springs:</b> My new home. Let's talk about the positive first. Although I only recently became a resident, I have roamed the mean streets of Hammond and Roswell for some years. As I've written before, despite it's long painful birth, Sandy Springs has shown it can handle its business on things that really matter. Like potholes. And trash. I'm pretty happy with the conditions of the streets and dealing with a private contractor for pickup was the least painful part of moving.<br />
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On a less positive note, on Tuesday, the Sandy Springs city council voted<a href="http://www.reporternewspapers.net/2013/06/19/sandy-springs-gets-serious-about-eminent-domain/"> 5-1 to use the power of eminent domain to take away the property currently occupied by Makara Mediterranean Restaurant.</a> The land will then be used to build a new government complex. It is not lost on me that many of the founders of the city are Republicans in the mold of "less government" hyperbole. And also were ones complaining quite loudly about the actions of their former landlords Fulton County. (It should be noted the one lone no vote was by Gabriel Sterling, more on that in a second).<br />
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Fortunately I got to eat at Makara recently and it is excellent. I highly recommend the lamb kabobs. Get them before they are gone.<br />
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<b>Dunwoody:</b> Just next door, Dunwoody is having its own struggles. I seem to remember writing something about <a href="http://griftdrift.blogspot.com/2008/07/endorsements.html">tinker toys getting jammed up noses</a>. Dunwoody seems intent on jamming both the silly and the serious in places they do not go.<br />
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Recently, the city's ethics committee found council member <a href="http://www.reporternewspapers.net/2013/06/12/dunwoody-ethics-panel-bonser-sent-discourteous-messages/">Adrian Bonser </a>in violation of the rule against being discourteous to a constutent. You read that right. She's being smacked down for being rude. We have a state legislature which can't decide how small they can make the lobbyist trough without losing all the slop while also keeping the peasants from tossing them out and a few miles north there's a city that will publicly shame you for telling a noisy resident exactly what you think of them. And people say we don't have diversity.<br />
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Then there's the <a href="http://www.reporternewspapers.net/2013/06/17/council-members-want-to-get-rid-of-bus-shelter-ads/">bus shelters</a>. Some on the council want bus shelters but are offended by the advertising on them. And in a fine trying to twist the mouth to eat the cake you have, they will not only lose the revenue they receive but may end up having to pay the company that places the ads. I find billboard type fights fascinating. I seem to be able to ignore them and wonder if maybe I'm missing a key gene that causes outrage when one intrudes on my line of vision.<br />
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Dunwoody also can't seem to make up its mind about a <a href="http://www.reporternewspapers.net/2013/06/19/dunwoody-charter-commission-reverses-itself-on-fire-tax-recommendation/">fire department</a>. But what it really comes down to is taxes and can they be raised with or without a vote. I wonder if this is the same first step on the path to "unresponsive government" that former Dunwoody parent Dekalb County took many many years ago.<br />
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<b>Brookhaven:</b> New kid on the block. They're hell bent on <a href="http://www.reporternewspapers.net/2013/06/14/local-governments-do-battle-with-adult-businesses/">getting rid of the house of sin</a> that was sinning away when they decided to draw their boundaries around it. It's an exorcism by inclusion which I'm a bit rusty on the concept but is probably not part of the canon.<br />
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It would be easy to roll in "told you so" here. After all, most of these new cities popped up because they couldn't get what they wanted from the current government entity and at least in the case of Sandy Springs and Dunwoody, the primary proponents are the same folks who constantly spew about the lack of necessity for government. But I won't and here's why.<br />
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Once the thump your chest rhetoric of city formation dies down, the reality of running a municipality sets in. And it is hard. It is easy to rain thunder on the decisions of those in power until you are in power and have to start making compromises of your own. Sandy Springs and Dunwoody have now been around long enough that the shine is off the new and streets still have to be paved. They are struggling but every government does. Hopefully, they will use these hard times to reflect on the reasons they left Dekalb and Fulton, consider that some of their criticisms should have been tempered and most importantly, not be seduced down the same paths which caused their own secessions.<br />
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Also, it is easy to forget there are real people involved here.<br />
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Sandy Springs city councilman Gabriel Sterling annoys me and he knows this. He is exactly what I think is wrong with the modern Republican party. His rants are sourced from talk radio and Breitbart and he is a living breathing example of confirmation bias. However, despite the fact that he is not my council person, twice, I've asked him for information and he responded quickly. If you ignore all the hoo hah he posts on places like Facebook, he's exactly the type of local representative you want. And his lone vote against the use of eminent domain to wipe out a small business is exactly the kind of consistency you want to see in a politician.<br />
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Dunwoody city councilman John Heneghan does not annoy me. In fact, he's one of the nicest guys I've met. I'm not really sure what he's got against ads on bus shelters, but I'm confident he feels he's trying to represent his folks as best he can. When I commented about Dunwoody's shenanigans on twitter, John almost immediately responded and through the digital air, I could sense his hurt. It was the hurt of father who watches his offspring stumble around and scrape both knees.<br />
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Growing pains are part of life whether you are a scoundrel who just bought your first house or you are newly formed city. But I have confidence Gabriel, John, the residents of Dunwoody and Sandy Springs (myself included) will figure it all out. If only because they have to. After all, that's life in the big city.<br />
<br />griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-22547284016066071852013-06-06T11:43:00.001-04:002013-06-06T12:03:53.174-04:00An Opportunity For Us AllWhen partisan Republicans start crowing about the findings of dyed in the wool liberals, it is not only time to take notice, but also to pause and reflect.<br />
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Criticizing the current President's policy on drones was all the rage a few weeks ago. A frequent refrain Republicans used to make Democrats squirm was "are you going to be comfortable with future President's executing this power"?<br />
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Echoes of the past never die.<br />
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That same argument was used by civil libertarians when the Patriot Act was created by the Bush Administration. We'll have to wait for a Republican to start the drone killin' before we can address the slide of that slippery slope, but the precipice of the one created in the last decade, at the height of the "we must do everything can to protect ourselves hysteria" has arrived.<br />
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All the participants are performing the usual partisan reels, but instead of focusing on the smugness of those who supported much <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/08/17/domesticspying.lawsuit/">worse less than a decade ago</a> or the sudden non-chalance of those who once deeply care about things like the Fourth Amendment (to be fair, my personal observation is there has been more of the first than the second. After all, the source here is deeply liberal Glenn Greenwald), we should instead turn to the words written by <a href="http://www.peachpundit.com/2013/06/03/republicans-have-opportunity-to-change-the-debate/">Charlie Harper three days ago</a>.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The assumptions behind most recent political debate have been “my side is
good and can handle power. Your side is evil and should not have it.” The
current scandals give Republicans a solid chance to change the debate. It
should no longer about who has the power of government, but should government
have this much power over us at all?</blockquote>
But replace Republicans with Americans, because today shows government restraint is not a partisan issue.<br />
<!-- Start Sociable --><br />griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847601.post-75584494858505928602013-05-31T12:42:00.000-04:002013-05-31T13:16:31.452-04:00Erickson's Arrogance Exposes Democrats IncompetenceOur old friend Erick has been all over the news lately.<br />
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On the national front, he's lamenting the fact that <a href="http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/05/erick-erickson-fox-business-women/65733/">some wives earn more than their men</a> and it could possibly unravel not only the entire fabric of society but nature itself.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
When you look at biology — when you look at the natural world — the roles of a male and a female in society and in other animals, the male typically is the dominant role. </blockquote>
Locally, he's congratulating Athens Republican Regina Quick's <a href="http://m.onlineathens.com/blog-post/nick-coltrain/2013-05-22/rep-regina-quick-pulls-no-punches-chamber-scorecard">response to her Chamber of Commerce grade of C+</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Good for Regina Quick. Increasing, Chamber of Commerce Republicans are not small gov't Republicans</blockquote>
That "conservatives" like Erick are willing to cast off sizable portions of demographics such as working women is nothing new. Although it is dangerous. I've personally witnessed more than one young female Republican, I mean dyed in the wool Republican, rankle at similar attitudes.<br />
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That he and those who continue to narrowly define what is and isn't a Republican are willing to cast off one of the pillars of the larger business community is new.<br />
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But what is striking is not Erick's ridiculous pronouncements. After all that's what he is paid to do - say outrageous things with little or no accountability. What is striking is as he and his allies continue to successfully shed appendages of the traditional Republican coalition, the Democrats, at least in the state of Georgia, cannot seem to acquire the cast offs.<br />
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As much as Erick's arrogance makes me not want to be his version of a Republican, the utter mewling kitten weakness of the Georgia Democrats certainly does not make me want to be their version of Democrat.griftdrifthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04509712527908530572noreply@blogger.com3