Monday, July 27, 2009

The Morning Line - Atlanta Mayor's Race

By request - the Atlanta Mayor's race. Friday was the first occasion where I discussed the Mayor's race with parts of the intelligentsia. That discussion combined with the fundraising numbers from the 2nd quarter provides enough information to open the book on the first race of the season.

Good odds on everyone as this is a tight race.

Mary Norwood (5-1):

Positives: Has the most cash and shockingly broad appeal

Negatives: Will Atlanta elect the first white mayor in almost 40 years?

Kasim Reed (7-1):

Positives: Most money raised in the last quarter. The machine lives

Negatives: Not the best campaigner

Lisa Borders (8-1):

Positives: Would be the establishment candidate, except...

Negatives: Doing the electoral hokey pokey cost her the confidence of some and the money of a lot

Jesse Spikes (12-1):

Positives: Expectations are low and he's already exceeding them

Negatives: I've already laid money out and it was all against Jesse


Anonymous said...

I don't normally consider these types of things too important, but I liked Mary N. a lot more before I found out that her campaign co-chair was P.Z.

rptrcub said...

Mary Norwood becoming mayor is like the possibility of Saxby Chambliss becoming a gay tutu wearing Democrat who adores Cynthia McKinney. Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

Chris said...

Good observations but at these odds I'll place a bet on everyone. They only add up to about 49% but there's about a 100% chance that one of these four will win. Unless you are saying that there is a 51% chance that Clark Howard jumps in.

griftdrift said...

I knew I would eventually attract some degenerate gambler who would check my math.

I knew I had them too low.

If I was really taking book, Jesse would be about 20 to 1 (maybe a little higher) and borders would be about 12 to 1.

But remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Peter said...

Norwood can win. The model is how Cathy Woolard won, oh, about 8 years ago now. Get into a runoff ... and have a better turnout among your supporters in the runoff than your opponent. Who do you think would more eager to vote in a runoff? Norwood supporters or Kasim Reed's supporters?