Thursday, July 09, 2009
Until the primary is complete, The Morning Line will deal only with the primary races. All odds are based on the candidates ability to win their own party's nomination. And remember children - gambling is illegal and all information is for entertainment purposes only.
Roy Barnes (3-2):
Positives - Dump trucks of money and name recognition
Negatives - Many hurt feelings
Notes - Does time heal all wounds? This is the question Roy Barnes must answer in the next 18 months. As Andisheh noted, Barnes first term reads like a greek tragedy. He was a man of vision but God help anyone who got in the way of that vision. His hubris led to a humiliating defeat which still smarts to this day. Beyond the obvious advantages, Barnes has the "I told you so on his side" but he must play this chip carefully if he is going to win back those he smacked around the last time.
Thurbert Baker (5-1):
Positives - Good name recognition, can run to the right of everyone
Negatives - Genarlow Wilson and the lure of other jobs
Notes - If you're an attorney general running for higher office you better be able to talk about crime and you better be able to talk tough. Thurbert Baker can do both. His reputation as a hard ass on getting people convicted could carry a lot of weight with voters not normally inclined to pull a Democratic ballot or lever. But his lack of discretion in the Genarlow Wilson case hangs out there like a festering sore. Baker has to make sure it doesn't pop.
Dubose Porter (15-1):
Positives - Has the legislative network to fall back on
Negatives - Not much money and not much name recognition
Notes - Dubose Porter is a nice guy and we know what happens to nice guys. If Roy hadn't jumped in the race, maybe, just maybe Dubose close ties to the legislature and their network of money would have allowed him to compete with Thurbert. With Roy now gobbling up Democratic Party networks, Dubose is scrambling for crumbs. He'll make a good show but that's all.
David Poythress (20-1):
Positives - Comes out swinging
Negatives - No money, no name recognition, no chance
Notes - David Poythress last won a statewide race in 1994 - back in the days when people still pulled the Democrat lever because their daddy and his daddy and his daddy pulled a Democrat lever. With Roy and Thurbert sucking up all the money, the only shot for someone currently polling south of 5% is to start wildly swinging and hope a haymaker lands. Poythress, to the surprise of some, did just that - sending out a scathing press release demanding loser Barnes drop out. Loser Barnes brushed aside the feeble swat and backed up another dump truck to the bank.
Carl Camon (OTB):
Positives - He's the mayor of Ray City
Negatives - No one in Georgia outside the Greater Tifton-Ocilla Metropolitan Area knows where Ray City is
Notes - For you non-gamblers, OTB means "Off The Board" which means no betting which means this is the last time we'll discuss Carl Camon.