Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The Morning Line - Atlanta Mayor's Race

We're down to the two candidates and this means the Morning Line changes it's methodology. Instead of a Horse Race parimutuel set of odds, we now shift to football game style "line". For those not familiar with the concept, a minus means the team is favored, a plus means the team is an underdog. The line will be set at what I believe to be the eventual margin of victory at the polls. Wager wisely.

Kasim Reed (-1.5) : Reed's late momentum in the "primary" appears to continue as according to the WXIA poll he is now in a statistical dead heat with Norwood. Combined with his recent endorsements by former foe Lisa Borders and the unions, Reed is the clear favorite.

Mary Norwood (+1.5): Where, oh where is Mary? Norwood desperately need to regain momentum and having odd press conferences is not going to saddle the horse. She needs a big splash or we could see the spread grow.

Finally, I don't do "endorsements" for races where I cannot vote, but I will say these thoughts reflect my own.
Kasim Reed holds a unique position in this pivotal point in time. He has the respect of two distinct and distant constituencies who are both integral to the future growth and success of the City. Worst case scenario, it is four more years of status quo while the forces for change are able to recruit a better candidate. But if Kasim is to live up to his challenge, he is the person best suited to bring all parties to the table, and set a course for Atlanta to work with the surrounding region and not against it.
Place your bets.