Friday, July 10, 2009

The Morning Line - Republicans

Until the primary is complete, The Morning Line will deal only with the primary races. All odds are based on the candidates ability to win their own party's nomination. And remember children - gambling is illegal and all information is for entertainment purposes only.

The Republicans are tight. Of course, these are the types of races where any good bookie rakes in the dough.


John Oxendine (5-1):

Positives - High name recognition, consistently high vote totals in previous elections

Negatives - Prone to odd campaign decisions and gaffes

How do you not make John Oxendine the favorite? Everyone wants to discount his candidacy but he consistently polls at number 1. Despite a donation snafu that resulted in an AJC investigative piece, despite having to give that money back, despite Democrats crowing about how many cars he's crashed, despite weird Snopes quality emails, Oxendine keeps coming out on top in polls. Time will tell if the continuous storm of taint will eventually drag his numbers down.

Nathan Deal (6-1):

Positives - Access to a congressional level donation network

Negatives - Does anybody outside the mountains really know him?

If the odds had been released prior to the quarterly financial statements, Deal's numbers would have been much longer. But his astonishing total of over $1 million cash on hand moves him past horses played more prominently in the early tip sheets. It shows the power a sitting Congressman can wield in the money game. Now, Deal (who is a better campaigner than most people think) has to hit the road and introduce himself to the rest of Georgia.

Karen Handel (7-1):

Positives - High name recognition, Perdue's infrastructure

Negatives - Very polarizing for a Secretary of State

Early tip sheets had Handel as a favorite but her rather anemic fundraising in the 2nd quarter dampens the enthusiasm. Certainly, she was hampered in ways others weren't (i.e. unable to transfer money from other campaign war chests, didn't make a personal loan to the campaign) but the image problem remains. Handel has to move past any impression that she is not a serious player. But Madame Secretary has proved in the past that she does not mind baring the knuckles and it is doubtful anyone is underestimating her.

Eric Johnson (8-1):

Positives - Gobs of money

Negatives - Temperment may be better suited to the state house

Another horse moving up due to the just arrived fund raising numbers. That Johnson outraised Handel may be the surprise of the early campaign season. Part of this is explained by his transferring money over from his now defunct Lt. Governor race but the public will only see the big number. It will keep Johnson's name in the limelight of the front runners. But publicity is a two edged sword. Johnson can be prickly and it may only be a matter of time before he publicly snaps at someone.

Austin Scott (15-1):

Positives - Playing the populist card

Negatives - Already resorting to stunts

Florida had Walkin' Lawton and we have Amblin' Austin. Scott plans to walk a thousand miles through Georgia. It worked for Lawton in the prehistoric days before the internet but in 2010, it's about a half step above smoke stack sitting. Scott has a future in the state, but not this time.

Ray McBerry (100-1):

Positives - Can't do much harm

Negatives - Bobby Franklin, The Constitution Party and a boat load of crazy

Ray McBerry has more in common with the lunatic/theocratic Constitution Party than the Republican Party. Georgia may be backwards but we ain't that backwards. But we should get some good sideshows out of him.


lazermike said...

I had the storm of taint once, but it cleared up with a little aloe vera.

griftdrift said...

Every metaphor spawned out of my admittedly strange brain came out sounding like the clap.

Unknown said...

Okay. Even though I agree with what you wrote about Oxendine, I must tell you, there's this guy named "griftdrift" who once slapped me down for using incumbency and prior vote totals as a measure of strength.

You need to watch out for that guy. I'm sure he's lurking around here some place.

Anonymous said...

Tidbits on Deal's numbers

$100,000 out of state contributions (driven by DC)

$75,000 campaign accounts (House, Senate, Congress campaigns)

$15,000 from Deal congressional campaign and Deal PAC (Red Rooster)

$12,200 Deal personal contributions (Mr. & Mrs. Deal)

$15,000 United Health Services (GA based Health care company interested in fed issues)
Total $217,000
+ $250,000 campaign loan

$467,000 from 6 sources of cash, which is greater than 33% of the money raised.

griftdrift said...

That griftdrift dude is no doubt an idiot.

Gamblers shouldn't be surprised to see Oxendine's odds undergo a transformation.

rptrcub said...

Since the Dems will probably lose anyway, I'll probably be voting in the Republican primaries just for s's and giggles. I'd rather have Handel than a mediawhore like Oxendine.

nast said...

Damn, I was going to make a snide comment about not wanting to be caught outside during a taint storm, but Mike beat me to it.

lazermike said...

I'm always quick to the taint.

B King said...

If the Ox actually wins the GOP primary, the Dems might actually have a shot, especially if Barnes wins.

Unknown said...

if we are using history as somewhat of a guide--lester maddox was the last guv w/out some kind of statehouse experience under his belt--and miller was the last to go from one constitutional office to another (and it was lt guv) not something else down ballot--also i wonder how close ox is to his peak, meaning he'd get that same 35% or so whether there are 2 or 10 candidates and will not be able to hit that 50% mark...